Market Structure

A confirmation dashboard for reading breadth, size participation, style leadership, and risk appetite beneath the surface of the U.S. equity market.

Methodology: Signals use the available daily close history. Return windows count trading-day observations; the 1Y comparison uses approximately 252 trading days. Spreads are differences between returns, shown in percentage points (pp). Trend confirmation uses the 20/50-day SMA relationship, with additional momentum and persistence diagnostics used to evaluate breadth, size participation, style leadership, and risk appetite.

This is a signal construction framework — not a proxy for full market history or a market forecast.

Trend Framework

Trend is defined by the 20-day SMA relative to the 50-day SMA using trading-day price observations. Persistence tracks how long that state has remained intact without interruption.

What This Page Does

Momentum shows what is leading. Market Structure shows whether that leadership is broad, durable, and confirmed across participation, style, and risk-taking.

Trend Up4

Trend Down6

Flat0

Constructive Bias0

Mixed Bias4

Defensive Bias6

Informational research signals • Not investment advice.

Latest source close: Oct 02, 2026

Current structure read: Breadth is narrow, size participation is weak, style leadership is growth-led, and risk appetite is speculative.

Implication: The market is mixed beneath the surface, with selective confirmation rather than a clean, broad-based structure signal.

Breadth

Narrow

Benchmark leadership is ahead of equal-weight participation, which usually signals a narrower market with weaker confirmation underneath the surface.

Drivers: VOO Up, RSP Down

Size Participation

Weak

Mid-cap and small-cap participation are both weak, which tends to signal a more fragile market beneath headline index performance.

Drivers: MDY Down, IWM Down

Style Leadership

Growth-led

Growth and momentum are leading while value lags, which usually points to a higher-duration, trend-following market profile.

Drivers: IWF Up, IWD Down, MTUM Up

Risk Appetite

Speculative

High-beta participation is stronger than low-volatility leadership, which usually points to a more risk-seeking market tone.

Drivers: QUAL Down, USMV Down, SPHB Up

Market structure is a confirmation layer, not a forecast. Narrow benchmark strength can persist for a time, while breadth and size participation can improve before headline indexes fully reflect it.

Breadth & Benchmark

Is benchmark performance being confirmed beneath the surface?

VOO · S&P 500

Cap-weighted large-cap benchmark.

Up 113dBias: Mixed

Interpretation

This module tests whether benchmark performance is being supported by broader participation rather than concentrated leadership alone.

Relative spread

VOO is leading RSP by 4.2 pp over the 60-trading-day window.

1Y spread (~252 trading days): VOO leads by 4.8 pp.

RSP · Equal Weight S&P 500

Breadth check beneath cap-weight concentration.

Down

Down 10dBias: Defensive

Size Participation

Are mid-caps and small-caps participating in the move?

MDY · Mid Caps

Mid-cap participation.

Down

Down 16dBias: Defensive

Interpretation

This module checks whether participation is extending beyond large-cap leadership into the broader domestic equity market.

Relative spread

MDY is leading IWM by 2.3 pp over the 60-trading-day window.

1Y spread (~252 trading days): IWM leads by 4.1 pp.

IWM · Small Caps

Small-cap participation.

Down

Down 15dBias: Defensive

Style Leadership

Is leadership coming from growth, value, or trend-following persistence?

IWF · Growth

Long-duration growth leadership.

Up 31dBias: Mixed

Interpretation

This module tests whether leadership is being driven by long-duration growth, cheaper cyclical value exposure, or reinforced by trend-following factor strength.

Relative spread

IWF is leading IWD by 1.8 pp over the 60-trading-day window.

1Y spread (~252 trading days): IWD leads by 14.4 pp.

Momentum context

MTUM · Momentum

Up 5dBias: Mixed

IWD · Value

Value and cyclical style leadership.

Down

Down 5dBias: Defensive

Risk Regime

Is the market rewarding quality and defense, or speculation and beta?

QUAL · Quality

Down

Down 10dBias: Defensive

USMV · Low Volatility

Down

Down 5dBias: Defensive

Interpretation

This module compares defensive equity preference against speculative beta to gauge whether the market is rewarding caution, risk-taking, or something in between.

Current tilt

Speculative

Relative spread

SPHB is leading USMV by 2.9 pp over the 60-trading-day window.

1Y spread (~252 trading days): SPHB leads by 35.8 pp.

SPHB · High Beta

Speculative risk appetite.

Up 26dBias: Mixed

Signal Matrix

Full cross-sectional view of all structure sleeves and their current state at a glance.

Ticker	Sleeve	Trend	Persistence	Bias	Role
VOO	S&P 500	Up	Up 113d	Mixed	Cap-weighted large-cap benchmark.
RSP	Equal Weight S&P 500	Down	Down 10d	Defensive	Breadth check beneath cap-weight concentration.
MDY	Mid Caps	Down	Down 16d	Defensive	Mid-cap participation.
IWM	Small Caps	Down	Down 15d	Defensive	Small-cap participation.
IWF	Growth	Up	Up 31d	Mixed	Long-duration growth leadership.
IWD	Value	Down	Down 5d	Defensive	Value and cyclical style leadership.
MTUM	Momentum	Up	Up 5d	Mixed	Trend-following factor confirmation.
QUAL	Quality	Down	Down 10d	Defensive	Profitability and balance-sheet strength.
USMV	Low Volatility	Down	Down 5d	Defensive	Defensive equity preference.
SPHB	High Beta	Up	Up 26d	Mixed	Speculative risk appetite.