Macro Regime Framework
A systematic regime dashboard that converts observable macro and market data into a consistent read of the investing environment. The model tracks inflation dynamics, liquidity and credit conditions, market risk preference, and growth and labor momentum to classify the current environment rather than forecast future outcomes.Each indicator is transformed into a consistent score on a fixed scale (−1 to +1) using transparent, rules-based thresholds. Pillar composites are weighted averages of their indicators, and the Macro Composite is a weighted blend of the four pillars. Scores are directional (positive = risk-on tilt, negative = risk-off tilt) and are interpreted using fixed bands (see tooltip).Signals are derived from the same three reference points shown in the tables: latest value, 3-month average, and 6-month average. Interpretation is rules-based and consistent across indicators, so the composite reflects evidence, not narrative.Note: Market Risk Preference is computed from USD trend and equity volatility (equal-weighted). Leadership rows provide market-structure context (display-only) and are excluded from the composite to avoid double-counting equity risk.
Current Regime Snapshot
A hierarchy-first summary of posture, supporting evidence, and what could shift it. Macro series can lag and may be revised.
These are the most important posture watches right now. The Framework acts incrementally; guardrails matter more than headlines.
Note: this describes the framework’s default response. It is not individualized financial advice.
The framework stays close to target weights.
It uses maintenance rebalancing and waits for stronger evidence before leaning in either direction.
Inflation Regime Composite
Inflation pressure and real-rate conditions.
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data Warn | 334.1 | 333.1 | 328.0 | Heating Pressures pillar | -0.50 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Data WarnBillions of USD · Seasonally adjusted annual rate | 22308.50 | 22164.77 | 21646.03 | Strong Heating Pressures pillar | -1.00 |
Global Price Index of All Commodities Data Issue | 193.2 | 192.4 | 189.3 | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Producer Price Index (PPI) Data Warn | 287.9 | 287.8 | 268.2 | Heating Pressures pillar | -0.50 |
Breakeven Inflation Rate (10Y) Data OK | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
10-Year Real Yield Data OK | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Liquidity Regime Composite
Credit + financial conditions + liquidity impulse.
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Yield Credit Spread vs Treasuries Data OK | 3.24% | 2.78% | 2.97% | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index Data OK | -0.55 | -0.51 | -0.52 | Easing Supports pillar | 0.50 |
10Y–2Y Treasury Spread Data OK | 0.45% | 0.45% | 0.60% | Easing Supports pillar | 0.50 |
Federal Reserve Total Assets Data OK | 6.74T | 6.72T | 6.60T | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Business Loan Tightening (Net % of Banks) Data OK | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | Mixed/Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Market Risk Preference Composite
Market Risk Preference is scored from USD trend + equity volatility (equal-weighted). Leadership rows provide market-structure context (display-only).
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Broad Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index Data OK | 120.3 | 119.3 | 119.9 | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Data OK | 16.4 | 17.8 | 19.2 | Volatility Compression Supports pillar | 0.50 |
Small Cap vs Large Cap Relative Strength Data OK | -4.09% | -5.48% | -1.00% | Large-Caps Leading Market structure (display-only) | — |
Discretionary vs Staples Relative Strength Data OK | -1.92% | -2.48% | 1.05% | Neutral Market structure (display-only) | — |
Cyclicals vs Defensives Relative Strength Data OK | -0.60% | 3.93% | 15.85% | Neutral Market structure (display-only) | — |
Value vs Growth Relative Strength Data OK | -2.88% | -1.74% | -6.21% | Neutral Market structure (display-only) | — |
Growth & Labor Momentum Composite
Business activity and labor market momentum.
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Fed Activity Composite Data OKAverage of Philadelphia, Dallas and New York Fed activity. | 18.40 | 19.43 | 11.80 | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Unemployment Rate Data OK | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | Improving Supports pillar | 0.50 |
Nonfarm Payrolls Data OK | +159K | +159K | +159K | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Initial Jobless Claims Data OK | +197K | +215K | +210K | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Notes
- The regime snapshot is informational and educational only. It reflects a structured interpretation of conditions and should not be viewed as trading instructions or individualized investment advice.
- The model classifies current conditions; it does not forecast returns or predict market direction.
- Some underlying macro series are reported with lag and may be revised; the dashboard reflects the latest published data as of the timestamp shown.
- Composites are read as the “headline” for each block.
- Sub-signals explain the composite, reducing the urge to overreact to one indicator.
- Leadership rows are displayed for market structure and are not included in the risk appetite composite.
- ARC overlay changes should be small and infrequent; when mixed, default is the base allocation.