Macro Regime Framework
A systematic regime dashboard that converts observable macro and market data into a consistent read of the investing environment. The model tracks inflation dynamics, liquidity and credit conditions, market risk preference, and growth and labor momentum to classify the current environment rather than forecast future outcomes.Each indicator is transformed into a consistent score on a fixed scale (−1 to +1) using transparent, rules-based thresholds. Pillar composites are weighted averages of their indicators, and the Macro Composite is a weighted blend of the four pillars. Scores are directional (positive = risk-on tilt, negative = risk-off tilt) and are interpreted using fixed bands (see tooltip).Signals are derived from the same three reference points shown in the tables: latest value, 3-month average, and 6-month average. Interpretation is rules-based and consistent across indicators, so the composite reflects evidence, not narrative.Note: Market Risk Preference is computed from USD trend and equity volatility (equal-weighted). Leadership rows provide market-structure context (display-only) and are excluded from the composite to avoid double-counting equity risk.
Current Regime Snapshot
A hierarchy-first summary of posture, supporting evidence, and what could shift it. Macro series can lag and may be revised.
These are the most important posture watches right now. The Framework acts incrementally; guardrails matter more than headlines.
Note: this describes the framework’s default response. It is not individualized financial advice.
The framework stays close to target weights.
It uses maintenance rebalancing and waits for stronger evidence before leaning in either direction.
Inflation Regime Composite
Inflation pressure and real-rate conditions.
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data WarnCPIAUCSL | 327.5 | 325.9 | 322.0 | Heating Pressures pillar | -0.50 |
Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core) Data IssuePCEPILFE | 21536.6 | 21473.7 | 21043.0 | Heating Pressures pillar | -0.50 |
Global Price Index of All Commodities Data WarnPALLFNFINDEXM | 184.3 | 172.8 | 164.9 | Strong Heating Pressures pillar | -1.00 |
Producer Price Index (PPI) Data WarnPPIACO | 267.9 | 261.2 | 261.1 | Heating Pressures pillar | -0.50 |
Breakeven Inflation Rate (10Y) Data OKT10YIE | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
10-Year Real Yield Data OKDFII10 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | Restrictive (Disinflationary) Supports pillar | 0.50 |
Liquidity Regime Composite
Credit + financial conditions + liquidity impulse.
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Yield Credit Spread vs Treasuries Data OKBAMLH0A0HYM2 | 3.28% | 2.97% | 3.11% | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index Data OKNFCI | -0.43 | -0.52 | -0.48 | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
10Y–2Y Treasury Spread Data OKT10Y2Y | 0.52% | 0.58% | 0.52% | Easing Supports pillar | 0.50 |
Federal Reserve Total Assets Data OKWALCL | 6.66T | 6.58T | 6.66T | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Business Loan Tightening (Net % of Banks) Data OKDRTSCILM | 5.3% | 9.9% | 9.2% | Strong Easing Supports pillar | 1.00 |
Market Risk Preference Composite
Market Risk Preference is scored from USD trend + equity volatility (equal-weighted). Leadership rows provide market-structure context (display-only).
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Broad Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index Data OKDTWEXBGS | 120.9 | 120.7 | 121.2 | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Data OKVIXCLS | 25.3 | 17.8 | 18.9 | Volatility Expansion (Strong) Pressures pillar | -1.00 |
Small Cap vs Large Cap Relative Strength Data OKVTWO vs VOO | -1.39% | 2.63% | 3.26% | Neutral Market structure (display-only) | — |
Discretionary vs Staples Relative Strength Data OKXLY vs XLP | -1.11% | -13.19% | -10.97% | Staples Strongly Leading Market structure (display-only) | — |
Cyclicals vs Defensives Relative Strength Data OKXLI vs XLU | -6.45% | -0.83% | 0.40% | Defensives Leading Market structure (display-only) | — |
Value vs Growth Relative Strength Data OKVTV vs VUG | 0.65% | 12.91% | 12.83% | Value Strongly Leading Market structure (display-only) | — |
Growth & Labor Momentum Composite
Business activity and labor market momentum.
| Metric | Current | 3M Average | 6M Average | Signal State | Pillar Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Fed Activity Composite Data OKAverage of:
PHI (GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI)
DAL (BACTSAMFRBDAL)
NY (GACDISA066MSFRBNY) | 5.90 | 6.37 | -2.37 | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Unemployment Rate Data WarnUNRATE | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Nonfarm Payrolls Data WarnPAYEMS | +158K | +159K | +158K | Neutral Little directional impact | 0.00 |
Initial Jobless Claims Data OKICSA | +210K | +213K | +234K | Improving Supports pillar | 0.50 |
Notes
- The regime snapshot is informational and educational only. It reflects a structured interpretation of conditions and should not be viewed as trading instructions or individualized investment advice.
- The model classifies current conditions; it does not forecast returns or predict market direction.
- Some underlying macro series are reported with lag and may be revised; the dashboard reflects the latest published data as of the timestamp shown.
- Composites are read as the “headline” for each block.
- Sub-signals explain the composite, reducing the urge to overreact to one indicator.
- Leadership rows are displayed for market structure and are not included in the risk appetite composite.
- ARC overlay changes should be small and infrequent; when mixed, default is the base allocation.