{
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      "label": "Recovery and Low Inflation",
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      "label": "Pandemic and Tightening",
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    },
    {
      "label": "Recent Expansion",
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  "lags": [
    {
      "lag": -12,
      "n": 785,
      "r": 0.003982577187140109
    },
    {
      "lag": -3,
      "n": 794,
      "r": 0.006767016955770157
    },
    {
      "lag": -1,
      "n": 796,
      "r": -0.011176651108393849
    },
    {
      "lag": 0,
      "n": 797,
      "r": -0.012701898102037498
    },
    {
      "lag": 1,
      "n": 796,
      "r": 0.06138790704463827
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    {
      "lag": 3,
      "n": 794,
      "r": 0.04800545392375856
    },
    {
      "lag": 12,
      "n": 785,
      "r": -0.04105935322810862
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  ],
  "rollingRange": [
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    0.33244280057914316
  ],
  "longestRealDrawdowns": [
    {
      "peak": "2000-08",
      "trough": "2009-03",
      "recovery": "2013-05",
      "decline": -0.5175859562309215,
      "months": 153
    },
    {
      "peak": "1973-01",
      "trough": "1974-12",
      "recovery": "1985-01",
      "decline": -0.5005936221478131,
      "months": 144
    },
    {
      "peak": "1968-12",
      "trough": "1970-06",
      "recovery": "1972-11",
      "decline": -0.31666360215219536,
      "months": 47
    },
    {
      "peak": "2021-11",
      "trough": "2022-10",
      "recovery": "2024-03",
      "decline": -0.24498579993741576,
      "months": 28
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "Robert Shiller",
      "url": "https://shillerdata.com/",
      "file": "ie_data.xls",
      "sha256": "98a54927942e842ec07ffe73000998e793953708c345b6b27bb363e9ada8366a",
      "notes": "Monthly average S&P Composite prices, interpolated trailing dividends/earnings, CPI and supplied real total-return index; only complete rows retained."
    },
    {
      "name": "World Bank Pink Sheet",
      "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets",
      "file": "CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx",
      "sha256": "ea1c350827878ea3bbe30e3cda16a13fd3bd5b409b8458940dc94a36b5a33154",
      "notes": "Gold USD/troy oz monthly averages. Spot averages from June 2025; previously London afternoon fixing averages. Pre-1970s gold observations reflect a different monetary setting."
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve via FRED",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL",
      "file": "M2SL.csv",
      "sha256": "63b673baffae16f7683963ddde0664012a7ac93ab775a82d3c98a0311e103e5a",
      "notes": "Seasonally adjusted monthly M2, billions of dollars; revised historical series, not real-time vintages."
    }
  ]
}